Barry Rubin over at the GLORIA center explains what is happening in Lebanon. He correctly predicts an ominous outcome to the Hezbo violent takeover in Beirut. Their intention was never to be part of the process, their objective was always violent jihad. The Hezbos have been nothing if not consistent in their objective of an Islamic Lebanon.
Excerpt:
What Spain was in 1936; Lebanon is today.
Does anyone remember the Spanish Civil War? Briefly, a
fascist revolt took place against the democratic government. The rebels were
motivated by several factors, including anger that their religion had not been
given enough respect and regional grievances, but essentially they sought to put
their ideology and themselves into power. Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy backed
the rebels with money and guns. The Western democracies stood by and did
nothing.
Guess who won? And guess whether that outcome led to
peace or world war.
Funny, I thought September 11 changed everything.
Why should Lebanese Sunni, Druze, and Christians risk their
lives when the West doesn't help them? Every Israeli speaking nonsense about
Syria making peace; every American claiming Damascus might split from Tehran;
every European preaching appeasement has in fact been engaged in
confidence-breaking measures.
Hizballah doesn't need to win a military victory but only to
show it can win one, using that position of strength to try to force its demands
on the moderate government. . The government has already accepted Michel
Suleiman, Syria's candidate for president. But Hizballah and the rest say this
is not enough: they want veto power over everything.
The goal of Hizballah, and its Syrian and Iranian backers at
present is not the full conquest of Lebanon--something beyond their means--but
to control the government so it does nothing they dislike: no strong relations
with the West, no ability to stop war against Israel, no disarming Hizballah's
militias or countering that group's control over large parts of the country, and
certainly no investigation of Syrian involvement in terrorism there.
Why, three years after Damascus ordered the murder of former
prime minister Rafiq Hariri do investigators dawdle, having edited out the names
of top Syrian officials they blamed for the killing in their initial report?
Israel bombed a nuclear reactor being built in Syria. Rice
reportedly opposed the action. The world yawned.
Iran drives for nuclear weapons. There is some effort but too
little, too slow. Whether or not the war in Iraq was a mistake, when terrorists
murdered Iraqi civilians, much of the West blamed America; all too many
Americans agreed.
Far too much Western media, intellectual--sometimes political
life--reviles Israel. But Israel is no threat to them; other forces are. And
events in Lebanon are one more proof that the Israel-Palestinian conflict is
only a portion, say one-fifth, of the wider Middle East crisis.
Many in the West think Israel will pay the price for their
follies. But Israel is ready to do what it needs for its self-defense. If
anything, the mistakes of the last round in Lebanon reinforced this
determination.
Instead, the main victims will be Arabs, mostly Muslims, in
Afghanistan, Gaza, Iraq, and Lebanon, killed by the various Jihad groups, or
ruled by them where they take power or dominate through intimidation. And second
they will be Western interests, which would not fare well in a region dominated
by a combination of Islamists and those who feel they have no choice but to
appease them.
When Senator and presidential candidate Barack Obama says he
will negotiate with Syria and Iran over Iraq's future, he signals every Persian
Gulf regime to cut its own deal with Iran. When his stances convince Hamas that
he's the guy for them; when Iran and Syria conclude they merely need stand
defiant and wait until January 21 for any existing pressure vanishes, the U.S.
position in the Middle East is being systematically destroyed.
Note that this does not make Obama the candidate favored by
Arabs in general but only by the radicals. Egyptians, Jordanians, Gulf Arabs,
and the majorities in Lebanon and Iraq are very worried. This is not just an
Israel problem; it is one for all non-extremists in the region.
If the dictators and terrorists are smiling, it means everyone
else is crying.
The Syrian and Iranian regimes know that while they may walk
through the valley of the shadow of sanctions they need fear nothing because
there are all too many who comfort them.
After all, if the UN human rights committee is run by Libya, if
UNIFIL forces in Lebanon tread lightly so Hizballah won't be angry with them, if
Westerners tremble and repeal freedom of speech lest some Muslims be offended,
why should the "bad guys" worry?
Yet the West doesn't have to play it stupid forever. Now is the
time for energetic action on Lebanon to wipe that confident sneer off their
faces. To contain Iran and Syria, to buck up the Lebanese government side and
all those Arabs who, whatever their faults, don't want to live in an Islamist
caliphate.
If you want to know what's wrong, consider Obama's May 10
statement on Lebanon. He starts out playing tough, talking about "Hezbollah's
power grab in Beirut....This effort to undermine Lebanon's elected government
needs to stop, and all those who have influence with Hezbollah must press them
to stand down immediately." He calls for supporting the Lebanese government,
strengthening the Lebanese army, and to "insist on disarming Hezbollah."
But how to do this? By "working with the international with the
international community and the private sector to rebuild Lebanon and get its
economy back on its feet."
In other words, according to the Obama world view, it's a
problem of development. If people have more money they won't be terrorists. Of
course, that was the policy of Hariri, which was countered by Syria blowing him
up. In politics, bombs trump business. And any way you can't have a strong
economy with no government and chaos. Part of the mistake here is Obama's
assumption that Hizballah (and other radicals) want stability and prosperity. In
fact, they want to use instability as blackmail in their pursuit of power. They
don't want conciliation. It's a military-strategic problem, not one of community
organizing.
The statement continues: "We must support the implementation of
UN Security Council Resolutions that reinforce Lebanon's sovereignty, especially
resolution 1701 banning the provision of arms to Hezbollah, which is violated by
Iran and Syria."
Great. But the UN is no substitute for U.S. power. As David
Schenker of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy writes, "It is highly
unlikely that the UN -- which failed to even prevent the rearming of
Hizballah--would agree to more dangerous deployments in Lebanon." America
doesn't need a president whose solution is to turn over crises to the UN.
Nor can Obama pass the buck to Lebanon's army. Its commander is
Syria's presidential candidate, its soldiers are mostly pro-Hizballah, and the
quarter-billion dollars of U.S. aid given since 2006 may well become additional
assets for Tehran.
As President Harry Truman said of the president's desk, the
buck stops here. So the president of the United States must take the lead, be
tough, and make credible threats. What's needed is not a conciliator but a
confronter.
These are the questions Obama isn't even pretending to try to
answer: Are you willing to fight on this issue? To defy an "international
community" that opposes action? To intimidate and defeat the radicals? Answer:
No.
But here's the worst part that few in America but everyone in
Lebanon will understand all too well: (there's more, go here)
[...]
"Oh the time we wasted by fighting Hizballah all those
years....If only we had engaged them and their masters in diplomacy...sitting
with them around discussion tables, welcoming them into our parliament, and
letting them veto cabinet decisions. If only Obama had shared his wisdom with us
before, back when he was rallying with some of our former friends at
pro-Palestinian rallies in Chicago. How stupid we were when, instead of
developing `national consensus' with them, we organized media campaigns
against Israel on behalf of the impoverished people who voted for them.
"During that time when we bought into the cause against Israel,
treating resistance fighters like our brothers, we really should have been
`building consensus' with them. Because what we did...was...unnecessary
antagonism, a product of a `corrupt patronage system and
unfair distribution of wealth.'"
"We stand today regretting the wasted time that could have been
wisely spent talking to them, to the Syrian occupiers who brought them
into our system, and the Iranian revolutionary guards who trained them.[1]
The battle isn't over, which is all the more reason for
real--not just verbal--international action. Hizballah has made its
point for the moment, that it is the most powerful and to it every knee must
bend. Yet without serious political and diplomatic support for
Lebanon's government and real costs inflicted on Syria and Iran, the battle will
be lost eventually.
For all those in the West who don't like Israel, then at least
help the people you pretend to like. Back the Lebanese government with real
power and aid, covertly or overtly, those battling the radical forces in
Lebanon.
Rick: "Sam, if it's December 1941 in Casablanca, what time is
it in New York?"
Sam: "Um, my watch stopped."
Rick: "I bet they're asleep in New York. I'll bet they're
asleep all over America."