RUSSIAN IMPERIALISM ON THE MARCH

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UPDATE: RUSSIA THREATENS, TELLS JOURNALISTS  TO GET OUT OF GEORGIA.

Situation Report, Russo-Georgian Conflict (hat tip Van)

Despite, lips flapping otherwise, Russia continues its aggression into the sovereign nation Georgia .A Russian tank battalion is occupying  Gori on Wednesday and was controlling access roads into and out of the city. Georgian troops pull back. A "peace agreement" with the Russian is as good as a "peace agreement" with "Palestinian Gazans". Worthless.  Utter contempt of free men.

Looking towards the future, McCain has been brilliant during the is crisis. He has been more presidential than Bush and made oybambi look positively foolish.

Where is the rabid anti-war leftards on the looting, burning and killing innocent Georgians .

Looking down the road, Dagby D'Anconia analyst over  Wheeler's Rational Oasis posits this:

Russian Aspirations Beyond the Pipeline 

If Russia takes and holds Georgia with a mass of troops, or enough of Georgia to have an occupied path north to south in Georgia... .

And then there is the imminent expected chaos in Iran once it is attacked by Israel....

Russia has only to roll across little Armenia to take a role in the military situation in Iran.

Thus Russia can take advantage of the situation and claim a warm water port in the Persian Gulf as well as the oil and gas fields of Iran on the way to the Gulf. (See map below) .

Iran could not say no to the bear ally or the bear enemy.  The Russians could sweep down along the oil and gas fields to the Gulf and provide a barrier line of Russian troops protecting Iran from the Americans.

If they occupy territory beyond the pipeline, it will become obvious their aspirations are far beyond the pipeline.  They too sense the moment of opportunity for gas, oil and a warm water port is coming. .

It might even involve a Yalta-like situation where we end up thanking the Russians for stabilizing the nuclear situation in Iran for us.

Clic for map of oil and gas fields of Iran.

If we try to hold this situation off by reining in Israel (as seems to be happening) then the Iranians get to finish their bomb.  Its a win either way for Russia as oil either comes under their control, or is destroyed in war.

The only solution is to stop the Russians now.  Thus President Bush has dispatched Condi with "humanitarian aid" which we hope includes the weaponry specified by Jack in "Georgia can be Putin's Afghanistan". The Russians dare not block the delivery of such "aid" when Condi is accompanying it.

President Bush:

"I've also directed Secretary of Defense Bob Gates to begin a humanitarian mission to the people of Georgia, headed by the United States military. This mission will be vigorous and ongoing. A U.S. C-17 aircraft with humanitarian supplies is on its way. And in the days ahead we will use U.S. aircraft, as well as naval forces, to deliver humanitarian and medical supplies."

UPDATE: I agree with Stop the ACLU - STEP IN!

UPDATE: CHINA CONFIDENTIAL makes three good points:

 

1. Weakness invites aggression. Russia was weak after the breakup of the Soviet Union. The United States took advantage of Russia's weakness by expanding and strengthening NATO and seeking to isolate and further weaken Russia. Today, the United States is weak--or is perceived as being weak by much of the world. So Russia is taking advantage of the opportunity to hit back.
 
2. Politics is about power, not public relations. Russia has the power to crush and intimidate its adversaries if they cross certain red lines, and is not afraid of using it--in sharp contrast with Washington, which seeks to accommodate and appease its worst enemies (e.g. nuclear-armed, Stalinist North Korea and nuclear-arming, Islamist Iran).
 
3. Oil and gas matter more than carbon credits. The world runs on real energy, not on alternative energy dreams, schemes and scams. Russia, unlike the US, has a national energy policy and is not afraid to produce its way to prosperity ... while the US, in the grip of environmental extremists and global warming zealots and charlatans led by former Vice President Al Gore and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, worries about "saving the planet."

 

Comments

[RISE_UP]

I truly believe Russia is trying to engage us.I truly believe it is all part of an Iran/Israeli showdown first strike against Israel.I hope not.

[jj]

pamela:

i read these posts, riveted.

plainly put, i think the russian aspirations exceed their grasp. and, their ability to hold what they might grasp.

in short, i think the russians have neither the forces to do strategically what the situation does in fact strategically offer them, simply because they cannot come up with the logistics train nor force to accomplish what is contemplated by the authors you quote.

it does not appear to me that they have, in fact, marshalled very much of a military presence in georgia, and have in fact included forces from allies to help them accomplish what they wish. they do not have much in way of armor, or air support, or really much of an apparent infantry component backing all of it up.

what they do have are weak, inept and spiritless opponents at their current disposal. if the georgians fought as hard as they whined, it might be another story.

i will agree on one thing. what we need is a president with some spine, who would put all current american military forces on high alert, including thosse in europe, and who would begin moving troops into norther iraq and easter iraq, and who would bring the marine amphibious capability into proximity with iran and iranian waters, and who would simply say to the russians, stop this nonsense right where it is, if you advance upon iran you will encounter american troops, and air force and naval components and there will be war, conventional or otherwise.

and look the sons o' bitches in the eyes, and mean it.

mccain is capable of it. he has looked down gun barrels before. obama has never even had a wet dream of this dimension.

john jay
milton freewater, oregon usa

p.s. this is the first "dividend" of the obama "presidency," the perception of american weakness and withdrawal from the world stage. obama and the united states are being "tested," even before he is even elected. this tells you what an obama presidency means. nobama08. nobama08.

[jj]

pamela:

posted elsewhere, says about the same as above, with enough of a different wrinkle to post here. so, here goes, another look at it.

john jay

..........................................

friends:

please read a most provocative and cogent examination of the russian invasion of georgia, at altasshrugs2000, the article entitled "russian imperialism on the march."

the link is http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2008/08/russian-imperia.html

it is a very fine article.

it does not seem to me that russia is quite capable, yet, of fully exploiting the geo-political bonanza lying before, just out of its grasp, in my opinion. they could not do it when they were in georgia as the second most powerful nation in the world with arguably the most powerful military post-viet nam era american doldrums.

i do not think they could/would ever attempt it against an american military which has absolutely no meaningful rival on the face of the earth now, against american resolve, if they measured any american resolve.

that is the issue, though, isn't it. the russians have made an assessment, they are backing obama, and they do not see the american resolve to oppose them?

the issue is why?

i think two reasons.--

1. the prospect that obama will be president. they see him, they have examined him recently on the world stage, and they see a weakling without experience, barely beyond wet nursing.

2. the second reason is the american/israeli refusal to take out the iranian nuclear capacity, in the face of overwhelming need and comparitive lack of penalty in so doing. the iranians cannot stop us, it is laughable to suggest otherwise, yet we hesitate in the face of compelling interests to do so.

from this, the russians conclude that we have entered an era in which we are simply not up to playing geo politics.

vote mccain, if you have any sense at all.

john jay

[neverforget]

Does anyone have an accurate order of battle for the Russians? Including how many of their units are capable of fighting.

[jj]

neverforget:

very good question.

there appears precious little evidence that much substantial fighting is going on anywhere. from what little i can glean from the news is appears that the russian "invasion" force is very skimpy, very short on armor, very little evidence that they are moving in classic russian battle array with armor, supporting artillery, ground to air defense to cover air attack, and very little evidence of much air presence at all except for an occasional apartment building which has been bombed.

there are no reports of meaningful casualties suffered on either side, except for an occasional woman and child who have stubbornly refused to flee their country and have died for their resolve.
i see no evidence of civilians fleeing the sight of battle, no evidence of civilian panic.
the georgians i am assuming have a bit of an air force, yet there is nothing to indicate that it has been put to use attacking advancing russian columns.

finally, i have seen absolutely no evidence of russian infantry, which is, to russian orthodoxy in things military, very important.

in short, this invasion seems to be a small number of light tanks, no evidence being presented that main battle tank groups, or the support that goes with them for an in-depth attack, is present anywhere. again, this invasion seems to be nothing more than some russian trucks and armored personnel carriers driving down georgian roads anywhere they want, with the georgian military fleeing before them like rabbits before coursing dogs.

it has every appearance to me of a "put up" job.

i mean, where is the georgian defense of their homeland?

and, finally, in endorsement of neverforget's point/question, where is the analysis of the strength and deployment and battle array of the russian invaders? this is most perplexing. some of these things are old enough to have been developed at this point.

how many russians are involved in this? what is their battle array? since wwii and before, they have had battle doctrine on offensive war, and it sure as heck is not being observed here. i think damn few soviet troops involved, and surely not in classic soviet fashion or according to soviet battle doctrine.

this is the tank dash of the americans through bagdhad, but with no tanks. look ma, no army!!
there was no notice of any advance mobilization of massive force. i think because it did not occur. where are the opposing georgians? very perplexing.

john jay
milton freewater, oregon usa

[pythagoras]

Maybe we should all send 'thank you' memos to Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schroeder for making this nightmare scenario in the Caucasus possible (these guys bent over backwards doing everything in their power to weaken the USA---"American unilateralism".....tsk! tsk!--- on the world stage thereby emboldening Russia and China to fill in the void).

Good work, comrades! It looks like 1956 Budapest all over again only this time in Tbilisi!