Losing Lebanon

It's gone. Israel should have eradicated Lebanon of Hezballah in the summer of 2006. That was one of those historical moments when the direction of the world changed .......... for the worse. Annapolis is a distraction from the real problems in the Islamic take over of all of the Middle East

Crisis in Lebanon: will the Syria-Iran- Hezbollah Axis elect a President or will the Lebanese!

While the US prepares for the Annapolis Middle East Peace Conference next week to orchestrate a farcical deal between what’s left of the Palestinian Authority and the State of Israel, a more ominous crisis is about to erupt in Lebanon. For the fourth time a Presidential election has been deferred. It is now scheduled for Friday, November 23rd.

Lebanon appears on the brink of being railroaded by the Syria-Iran-Hezbollah Axis to opt for a President like General Michel Aoun who has become a cat’s paw for Hezbollah. Walid Phares of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy has suggested that Aoun and other Christian allies are simply the modern equivalent of “janissaries for Iran”.

Tom Harb, Secretary General of the World Council of the Cedars Revolution in a statement issued today said:

“The Aoun suggestion is a Hezbollah trap to crumble the majority and defeat the Cedars Revolution. If an ally of Hezbollah, the Aoun bloc, will name the next President the UN resolutions will be killed. And if a new Government will include Hezbollah, the Parliamentary majority will be paralyzed.”

Harb went on further to say:

“The international community produced resolution [UNSCR 1559] so that the Lebanese people elect democratically a new President, not to have politicians allied with Terror groups name the next President. The idea is simply unacceptable and will be opposed by the Lebanese Diaspora.”

Things are so grave that French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has visited Beirut several times to try and broker a compromise Presidential candidate between opposing political factions. Traditionally, the post of President is held by a member of the Christian community.

Phares has even suggested that the U.S. send a naval task force to Beirut to send a message to the Axis to let the Lebanese elect a President to replace Syrian ally current President Lahoud.

As Ken Timmerman has noted, the US Harry S. Truman CVA battle group is currently steaming out of its base in Naples, Italy “a literal hop, skip and jump from Lebanon”.

Phares views the US naval task force as a means of forcing a fair election, but not aimed at dislodging Hezbollah, part of a “chess game”.

In an interview on France 24 cable TV news, Phares noted the “Axis” spin was usd to confuse the situation:

1. The United States and the UN will not confront the terror threat if a President is elected by a majority in Parliament, which is wrong.

2. That France wanted to impose a “Hezbollah-blessed” President, which is wrong.

3. That some deal with Syria was cut with the Arab countries on the eve of the Annapolis conference, which is not accurate

There's more. Read it all.

UPDATE, Jerry Gordon sent this  BBC news report on the failure to vote on a President
"Are we moving to a crisis that the US should address and defer the ridiculous Annapolis Conference. It looks like Syria, Iran and Hezbollah are trying to pull off a 'coup' while the US has its attention span elsewhere engaged in the 'legacy project"?'

Lebanese Fail to Elect a President BBC
Lebanese MPs have failed to convene to elect a new president as the term of the incumbent, Emile Lahoud, expires.

Members of the Western-backed majority had hoped to hold a vote, but the pro-Syrian opposition did not allow the session to achieve the quorum needed.

The crisis has raised fears of civil strife, including the possibility of rival administrations, as happened during the 15-year civil war.

Parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri said the vote would be held on 30 November.

Repeated attempts to elect a new president over the past two months have been scuppered by rivalry between the factions.

"If he chooses to stay... it will be a crime against the constitution which is sanctioned by law," deputy speaker of parliament, Farid Makari, said, reading a statement from the ruling majority.

The tension was palpable on the streets as the crisis over electing the president came to a head, with the army deployed in force and schools closed, BBC Beirut correspondent Kim Ghattas says.

Check points have also been set up and the ministry of interior has suspended all firearm permits until further notice.

No compromise

The election of a president requires a two-thirds majority, which means that the pro-Western ruling bloc - with its slim majority - could not force its preferred candidate through parliament.

According to Article 62 of the Lebanese constitution, if no candidate is elected before Mr Lahoud's mandate expires, his powers are automatically transferred to the anti-Syrian government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.

However, President Lahoud has vowed not to hand over power to Mr Siniora, and said he would name army chief General Michel Suleiman as his provisional successor instead

UPDATE:

• Lebanon Enters a New Crisis - Anthony Shadid
  Lebanon's worst crisis since the 1975-90 civil war builds to a climax at midnight Friday, when the term of President Emile Lahoud ends. Despite weeks of French-led mediation, Lebanon's factions appeared unlikely to reach a consensus on Lahoud's replacement by the deadline, plunging the country into a constitutional limbo. Unlike Lebanon's civil war, often characterized as a Christian-Muslim conflict, this crisis has mobilized the country's Sunni and Shiite Muslim communities against each other, with Christians divided between the two camps. (Washington Post)
      See also Syria Is Accused of Blocking a Deal on a New Lebanon President
  The U.S. and Lebanon's main anti-Syrian Christian leader on Wednesday accused Syria of blocking a deal on a new Lebanese president. Samir Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces group, said the Syrian-backed opposition was threatening chaos if its preferred consensus candidate did not replace the pro-Syrian president, Emile Lahoud. "It really ought to be decided without foreign interference, and certainly without any foreign intimidation," Secretary of State Rice said. "Those messages have been very clearly sent." (Reuters/New York Times)
      See also Lebanon President Deadline Looms (BBC News)
• Arab League: Israel Won't Get "Normalization for Free"