Why the cameras? Iran 'able to build nuke weapons'. seems to be a consensus Iran 'able to build nuke weapons'. The U.S. State Department's top official on nuclear issues says Iran used negotiations with the European Union to play for time to further its nuclear ambitions and now has the capacity to develop a nuclear weapon and a delivery system.
The Officers at the Officers Club see it as I do;
Iran has cut trade with Denmark, attacked their embassies, their clerics have denounced the IAEA resolution, and have told the IAEA to remove their monitoring equipment from their facilities.
It looks like the Iranians are proceeding full speed ahead with their Manhattan Project, and it is now in the hands of the UN Security Council to stop it. The likelihood of that happening is slim, I believe. It took us 12 years and endless resolutions to deal with Saddam, who was actively violating UN sanctions, shooting at our pilots, and killing his own people. If it took us that long to deal with Saddam under the auspices of the UN, Iran will get the bomb, period.
While this may be an academic exercise for the UN, it isn’t for Israel. Even the United States may not be able to muscle the political maneuvering room to launch the kind of attack on Iran that would be necessary to knock out its reactors. This crisis comes down to how long Israel feels it can wait for Iran to acquire its WMD and delivery capability.
This timeline may be running out more quickly than people realize. If state-sponsored uranium enrichment has truly begun in earnest, and delivery capability is being researched, Israel may be forced to act sooner rather than later.
The attack would definitely be a single, massive air strike the likes of which the MidEast has never seen. Here is how I think it would go down. It is widely believed that Iran is out of range of Israeli fighters and bombers. The range problem could be ameliorated by mid-air re-fuelers, but that would cause problems. Israel only has 5 KC-130 re-fuelers, and the idea of refueling over enemy airspace would complicate an already complicated plan. The solution to this problem is to establish forward landing areas close to Iran, in order to “leap-frog” into Iran. This would, of course, be an act of war against (speculating here) either Saudi Arabia or Syria.
I believe that the Israelis would attempt to bypass Turkish, and Iraqi airspace. They would have to either seize an airfield, or construct one themselves. Paratroopers would insert into the area, secure the airfield, and set up a defensive perimeter. Then the transport aircraft would begin to land and set up a FARP (forward area re-arm/re-fuel point). I assume we’ll have passed the “international incident” by this point, and all out war will be declared by one (or many countries against Israel.If the FARP is established in Syria, it would have to be set up in the northern hinterlands, the bulk of Syrian forces (including their ADA assets) are located in the south near the Israeli border. Such a move would undoubtedly initiate a direct attack on the Israeli defensive positions by Syrian troops, possibly employing their WMD capability.
I doubt that this would interfere with the airlift to the FARP, and I base that from judging the last Israeli duel with the Syrian air force/air defense system. The other option is to establish the FARP in the Saudi desert somewhere near the Kuwaiti border. This approach would violate the airspace of Jordan, as well as Saudi Arabia, but would provide a more direct flight path across the Persian Gulf to Iran. Establishing the FARP in Saudi Arabia may be a less dangerous course of action than in Syria, but Syria may very well attack Israel anyway once the cover of the operation is blown.
That being established, Israeli aircraft would land at the FARP, re-arm, reload, and then begin the assault on Iran. This would include forward EW craft like the EC-707, IAI-201, and the Do-28D B1 (ELINT). These aircraft would identify and jam Iranian ADA, and would have to proceed with a fighter escort to deal with the Iranian Air Force. Behind the EW craft would be the main strike force. Each target would have to have multiple strike waves, but the timing of the attacks and the vulnerability of the FARP would necessitate a massive “shock and awe” strike against each target.Hat tip Ken
Go over and read it all and have your mind blown here
